Dallas throws the ball at a high rate and Lamb will dominate the target share in an offense that has the steepest drop-off in quality of players from WR1 to WR2.īy the way, there’s no question he’s good enough to handle that type of workload. It is not because his ceiling range of outcomes includes being the WR1 overall in fantasy football this year. I know you think this is drafting Lamb at his ceiling. Swift checks a lot of the boxes we want in our fantasy backs. He’ll have more competition for targets this season but should remain high in the Lions' receiving pecking order. Swift cleared 1,000 scrimmage yards in just 13 games last season. Harris is one of the few backs who is ticketed for 80-plus percent of his team’s backfield touches but I do wonder if his raw target total from 2021 (94) is destined to come down while playing with quarterbacks who don’t just constantly check down. Harris’ recently reported foot injury makes me even more confident going with some of the receivers and higher-ceiling backs I have ahead of him in Round 1. It feels weird to have a back who is likely to split carries slotted this high but the offense should mostly flow through Jones and AJ Dillon. The Packers have always been more run-heavy than you think and given the massive opening in their target share following the Davante Adams trade, Jones could set a career-high in looks. I’m trying to find as many reasons as possible to be ahead of ADP on Aaron Jones this season and I bumped him up again in this updated version. The move reflects no negative feelings or backing-off of the prolific Packers runner. I just wanted to move the two receivers here ahead of Jones. Diggs should land somewhere between 20 in the efficiency department this season. The Bills are light on proven pass-catchers behind him, despite the fantasy community’s excitement over Gabe Davis. 1.09 - Stefon Diggsĭiggs is coming off back-to-back 160-plus target seasons and there’s no reason he shouldn’t moonwalk right into that type of alpha target share once again. We should be ecstatic to bet on and project growth for elite young receiving talents tethered to such a juicy situation as Chase’s setup in Cincy. Ignore things like, “Chase had x-percent of his fantasy points come on just a handful of plays,” or other such noisy nuggets. For what it’s worth, the Titans are clearly betting on the former outcome given they doubled down on their run-first, Henry-centric identity with just about every offseason move. The negative extreme is just as easy to visualize given the amount of volume he’s handled since 2019. You can easily tell yourself a story that last year’s injury was a mere blip in an otherwise stellar run and he’s right back at the top of the positional scorers come December.

1.07 - Derrick HenryĮven within a running back crop that feels particularly rocky this year, Henry strikes me as more volatile than most. He should have more passing game opportunities and easier runs going out of spread-out 11 personnel packages. The more I’ve thought about how much Jefferson has rightly been steamed up the board given the offensive philosophy shift in Minnesota, the more I’ve realized Cook needs a similar bump. I’ve bumped Cook up to my RB4 over the last few weeks and therefore his overall slot in this mock needs to reflect that.

That gives us comfort when chasing that ceiling for another season. The current Chargers coaching staff didn’t put any weird, sized-based limitations on his role in the scoring area. 1.05 - Austin EkelerĮkeler has gone over 1,500 yards from scrimmage twice in the last three years and is coming off a career-best 20 total scores. A growing talent on a rocketship-upward trajectory, Jefferson has a similar outlook to Kupp this season. I would be zero-percent shocked if Jefferson takes another leap and becomes the WR1 overall this season. Didn’t bump him down for some of the weird Matthew Stafford-elbow headlines over the last month. Unlikely to repeat his Triple Crown performance from last year, Kupp is still in a position to dominate high-leverage targets for a great offense. You know how this can easily go wrong - just revisit each of the last two seasons - but the reward is so well worth the risk when injuries are largely unpredictable. His usage will not change, and we know his combination of rushing work and high-equity receiving duties is truly rare in fantasy football. Since publishing the June 1 edition of this mock draft, I’ve had the second overall selection in multiple managed league drafts and I took McCaffrey over my top two wide receivers. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) 1.02 - Christian McCaffrey 1 pick in 2022 fantasy drafts, Jonathan Taylor.

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